Adaptive Resilience in the Freely Associated States: Assessing State Capacity to Cope with Climate Change

The genesis of this report was a modest question: Why do some countries struggle to adapt to climate change despite the availability of strong development partnerships and financing commitments? This research project examined the climate and adaptive resilience of three Pacific Island nations—Federated States of Micronesia (FSM), Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI), and Republic of Palau—under the Compacts of Free Association (COFA) with the United States. Positioned at the forefront of climate change impacts, these nations are identified by the Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) as among the most susceptible globally, with RMI and FSM ranked as the first and third most vulnerable countries, respectively.

The study adopted a systems thinking framework to explore the multidimensional factors influencing the coping capacities of these island states. It integrated a mixed-methodology approach, combining quantitative data from the PDC’s 2050 Climate Change Impact Analysis with qualitative insights gathered through fieldwork in Oahu, Hawaii.

Through this report, and across the Freely Associated States, the Capstone team determined the answer to the question lies in a series of capital constraints that inhibit effective implementation and maintenance of long-term adaptation initiatives. Key vulnerabilities to adaptation include governance, health, infrastructure, and food security, which impact population security and the states' capacities to respond to climate-induced disasters. The findings highlighted priorities for investments that could enhance regulatory quality, technological accessibility, and economic diversification. This evidence-based approach informed policy recommendations, to bolster climate security and ensure sustainable development for these COFA nations through strategic adaptive resilience initiatives.