Assessing Climate-Conflict Risk in the Indo-Pacific

Extreme weather patterns introduce environmental disruptions, including both slow and sudden onset disasters, such as rising sea levels, desertification, hurricanes and floods. These environmental disasters contribute to instability, especially in regions already facing political, economic, and social challenges. As climate stressors intensify, they exacerbate resource scarcity, economic downturns, displacement, and governance challenges. These conditions threaten human security and increase vulnerability to conflict, as heightened competition over resources and weakened institutions create an environment where tensions may escalate into violence. 

The Center for Excellence in Disaster Management and Humanitarian Assistance (CFE-DM) of the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) tasked the SIPA team to conduct research assessing the security implications of climate disruptions, particularly its role as a risk multiplier. The team constructed a comprehensive, evidence-based framework that examines the pathways through which natural hazards interact with pre-existing vulnerabilities to heighten the risk of violence. This framework incorporates a cross-regional analysis and global literature review, drawing on comparative case studies from regions including the Middle East, Latin America, and Africa, where environmental disruptions have exacerbated instability. The team identified common patterns and regional variations in climate-conflict dynamics, refining its application to the Indo-Pacific region to pinpoint the top five most vulnerable countries. 

The study aims to support CFE-DM officials in assessing the security concerns associated with disaster-induced and other environment-driven risks, while enhancing strategic coordination among the DoD and partner nations to strengthen regional stability, build resilience, and mitigate threats that could impact U.S. national security interests and those of its allies.