China’s Policy Responses to US Rebalance to the Asia-Pacific: Assessment of Key Regional States

The Obama administration instituted a plan to expand and intensify the United States’ engagement with the Asia-Pacific region in what has become known as the “U.S. rebalance”. This capstone team researched the degree to which changes in China’s diplomatic, economic, and military engagement with key Asia-Pacific countries can be attributed to the U.S. rebalance to the Asia-Pacific over the period 2009-present.

Based on the understanding of the overall nature of the U.S. rebalance, country-level analysis of primary countries (Japan, South Korea, Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam, and Australia) and secondary countries (Burma, Cambodia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and New Zealand) was conducted to evaluate Chinese foreign policy reactions in the region. Evaluative criteria for determining how an activity is associated with a response to the rebalance were developed in three key dimensions: diplomatic, economic, and military.

The team found that China’s responses to the U.S. rebalance policy take a country-specific approach based on China’s own judgments about the individual value of the country. Developments in bilateral relations provide more of an explanation for changes in Chinese behavior than concluding that they are a response to the rebalance. China’s responses to the U.S. rebalance are better seen as a secondary driver that reinforces existing bilateral trends. Lastly, China appears to be more active in using diplomatic and economic dimensions than the military dimension. The relatively low appearance of a military response by China supports the general impression that China is less likely to use its military in response to the U.S. rebalance.