Evaluating Failure and Success in Fragile Contexts

Are projects in fragile and conflict-affected situations (FCS) fundamentally different from those in non-FCS and if so, why? Additionally, are projects becoming more or less ambitious over time? To further our understanding of these complex issues, our team was tasked with developing a typology to classify World Bank projects that goes beyond existing sector mapping. A more complex classification of projects may bring us closer to answering these questions, since differentiating projects solely by sectors is likely not to capture sufficient information.

The task of analyzing the World Bank’s database of projects involved many layers of investigation. This Capstone focused primarily on the Project Development Objectives (PDOs). The goal of our work was to create a typology based on the text within these PDOs. This typology could allow analysts to more accurately identify different types of World Bank projects. Based on this typology, a further analysis might, for instance, examine whether different types of projects are conducted in FCS versus non-FCS, and whether these project types are associated with varying success ratings. However, regression analyses would need to be conducted to determine the usefulness of this typology in identifying factors that impact project success.

Despite some of the limitations, the resulting typology can be used to inform the Global Center for Conflict Security and Development’s (CCSD) ongoing efforts to develop improved projects in the following ways: (i) by guiding comparisons across projects; (ii) assessing the scope of current development objectives; (iii) serving as a framework for expanding a classification system to include more detailed information about project activities (e.g. through the use of key performance indicators); and (iv) identifying types of projects, or specific elements within projects, which are most likely to result in successful outcome ratings in FCS and non-FCS.