Evaluating Threats to Human Development in Zambia from Climate Extremes and Identifying Adaptation Policies to Foster Resilience

Zambia is experiencing a critical climate turning point. With a sub-tropical climate shaped by cyclical rainfall, the country’s rural economy remains heavily reliant on predictable rainfed agriculture. However, rising temperatures, intensifying droughts, and increasingly erratic rainfall patterns are disrupting this climate rhythm, threatening food systems, water resources, and the livelihoods of Zambia’s most vulnerable populations. These are not distant risks—they are already materializing. The 2024 drought, the most severe in over a decade, exposed deep systemic vulnerabilities in rural communities, pushing nearly one-third of the population into food insecurity in 2025.

Through field research, stakeholder interviews, and analysis of national climate and food security policies, the Capstone team examined the socioeconomic impacts of drought on Zambia’s agriculture and food systems, while identifying pathways to enhance climate resilience and expand access to adaptation finance. The team’s final report aimed to support UNDP Zambia and its partners in addressing these challenges through practical, scalable interventions. Key recommendations include scaling up climate-smart and nutrition-sensitive agriculture, expanding irrigation infrastructure, embedding food security more explicitly into climate policy, and improving access to adaptation finance, particularly for underserved smallholder farmers.