External Economic Influence in South Caucasus/Central Asia

The Capstone group was tasked to complete a research project on the use of Russian, Turkish, Iranian and Chinese economic, cultural, and military ties to influence foreign and domestic policy in the South Caucasus and Central Asia. These countries include: Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan.

The research project combines the use of economic data (trade flow and remittances), and country data (energy deals and official visits), to identify trends in influence. The final report concludes that Russia still maintains a dominant role in the region, but that China in particular has made substantial inroads in developing strong ties to various regimes in the purview. China’s rise as an economic power is especially reflected in its role within the region, while culturally Russia maintains a substantial and persistent advantage. Iran and Turkey remain considerable laggards across all three categories, but the latter is poised to makes gain in its influence with the recent passage of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). This report delves into the dynamics underlying these trends.