How Trade Policy Affects Opportunities in the Greening Economy for Private Client Investors

As with prior collaborations with Citi Global Wealth Management, this research analyzed how evolving U.S. trade-related policy shapes investment strategies for Citi’s clientele of private investors in the greening economy. In the face of largely adverse policy evolution under the new Trump Administration, the team’s research focused on four sectors where private investors can continue to propel the energy transition: critical minerals supply, nuclear generation, battery manufacturing, and manufacturing of solar energy equipment  (the examined sectors).  

Feedback from policy experts and market participants developed in this research confirmed the increasing policy headwinds for clean energy in the form of potential IRA rollbacks, tariffs, and rising fiscal constraints under the Trump administration. At the same time three broadly shared bipartisan priorities support the examined sectors: (1) securing critical mineral supply chains as a  national security priority; (2) increasing domestic nuclear power generation capacity to meet  growing electricity demand; and (3) reshoring and supporting domestic manufacturing through  incentives and protectionist trade measures. 

The report includes deep-dive analyses of eight sub-sectors: the production/supply of five  minerals: copper, aluminum, nickel, lithium, and cobalt, along with the other examined sectors of nuclear generation and domestic manufacture of batteries and solar equipment. Each subsector deep-dive includes (1) historical production and price evolution, (2) a supply-chain analysis (highlighting China’s dominant role in many subsectors), (3) the impact of evolving trade-related  policy, (4) recent market developments and a sorting matrix of the leading sector players as a guide  for the investors audience.