Scenario Analysis: What Might be the Next Smuggling Haven?

The Russia-Ukraine war, which has fundamentally altered Ukraine’s internal security dynamics, border control systems, and coordination mechanisms, has created new vulnerabilities in the control of nuclear and radioactive (R/N) material smuggling in and around Ukraine. From its attacks on nuclear sites, occupation of Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP), and artillery fire aimed toward the areas surrounding both ZNPP and Chernobyl, Russia’s aggression is jeopardizing Ukraine’s ability to thwart the spread of nuclear material and maintain nuclear security.

Based on open-source materials and interviews with government and external experts, this capstone project analyzed the threat of nuclear and radiological/nuclear (R/N) material smuggling through three scenarios: during active wartime, immediately following a ceasefire, and in long-term peace. The Capstone team began by assessing two conflict zones (the current Russia-Ukraine and Middle East wars), as well as the Afghanistan-Pakistan border. Still, Ukraine emerged as the focal point due to its stronger basis in open-source data, institutional access, and a well-documented historical precedent for addressing nuclear-related challenges. Through these three Ukraine-based scenarios, the Capstone team prioritized depth and quality of analysis over geographic range and generated forward-thinking, practical recommendations for addressing the threat of nuclear and R/N material smuggling throughout all three phases of the conflict.