COP 30: Opportunities and Risks for Climate Change Dialogue

This Capstone report provides strategic analysis and policy recommendations to support Brazil’s presidency of the 30th UN Climate Change Conference (COP30), scheduled for November 2025 in Belém. Conducted by graduate students at Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs, in collaboration with Brazil’s Ministry of Environment and Climate Change (SECLIMA), the project evaluated Brazil’s role in shaping COP30’s agenda and strengthening global climate governance. Drawing on field research in Brasília, São Paulo, and Rio de Janeiro, including interviews with policymakers, diplomats, experts, and civil society leaders, the report identifies practical steps Brazil can take to align national priorities with multilateral outcomes.

The report centers on thematic pillars articulated by the Brazilian COP30 presidency: mitigation, adaptation, finance, technology, biodiversity and capacity building. It offers targeted recommendations across these areas, including expanding adaptation finance, advancing the implementation of the Loss and Damage Fund, scaling nature-based solutions, improving accountability mechanisms through the Global Stocktake, and integrating subnational and Indigenous actors into the UNFCCC process. It also assesses the potential of Brazil’s concurrent leadership in the G20 and BRICS to amplify climate diplomacy and promote just transition frameworks. The report proposes institutional innovations such as formalizing the COP Troika Presidency model, improving government coordination, and developing sectoral investment plans to implement Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). To ensure continuity and follow-through beyond the summit, the report concludes with the proposal of a dedicated Climate Implementation Taskforce, a mechanism to track progress, support implementation, and preserve the long-term legacy of Brazil’s COP30 presidency.