Mapping Corruption Networks

Problem

How do you predict at what point acute government corruption – interacting with other risk factors – will pull a country out of peace and into conflict? This is the question the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace sought to answer. Based on initial research from Carnegie Senior Associate Sarah Chayes, the team investigated how kleptocratic networks worked within Brazil, Guatemala, Kenya, Syria, and Tajikistan – five countries at various points along the conflict spectrum. Looking at these case studies, the team was asked to help Carnegie build its new “Corruption Mapping” website by providing: 

• Research Methodology: In looking at future cases, what sources, experts, and metrics should be considered when evaluating a country’s kleptocratic networks and corruption’s interaction with and influence on pre-determined risk factors.

• Country-Specific Analyses: A comprehensive examination of a country’s political, social, environmental, and economic settings in the lead-up to a past security crisis or a potentially impending crisis. The roots of corrupt practices were also documented.  

• New Risk Factors: In addition to eight risk factors provided by Carnegie (ex: economic downturn, demographics, age of ruler, identity divisions, etc.), what other factors – when exacerbated by corruption – can contribute to a security crisis. Additionally, what “triggers” might set off a crisis.

• Tool to Assess Risk Factor Saliency: Once relevant risk factors are identified, how could Carnegie weigh the relative importance of each, thus identifying critical areas of concern that policymakers should address to prevent or stop conflicts.

• Threshold for Determining Likelihood of Security Crisis: Explain how commonalities and patterns between “at-risk” countries could create a predictive tool to help policymakers understand and prioritize international security events.

Methodology

Building a research rubric around the key factors identified by Carnegie, the team used three tracks of research – reviews of corruption perceptions indecies, academic literature, and 25 in-depth interviews with country and corruption experts – to identify and map out key revenue streams of a state’s kleptocratic network, the levers of power used by the state to control the network, and the enforcement mechanisms it coopted to protect its interests. Once networks were documented, the team compared and evaluated the relative influence of each factor that interacted with the networks to determine its importance in creating a security crisis.

Solution

Presenting five country briefs totaling nearly 200 pages, the team documented and explained how corruption works across a diverse segment of countries. The final deliverable, a Corruption Analysis Manual, provided a directory of 70 experts that the Carnegie team should consult as they continue their research. It also included condensed summaries for the five case studies that Carnegie will post on its “Corruption Mapping” website.