Prospects for European Energy Security

Among the manifold factors that have helped to determine the course and velocity of human development, energy – its accessibility, convertibility, and efficiency – may stand tallest in the hierarchy. Since its very inception, energy has been a central issue for the European Union.  The first agreement, which led to the creation of the European Union was the European Coal and Steel Community Treaty of 1951.  Since that time, Europe’s use of and dependence on hydrocarbons has risen markedly, as have the severity of the security dilemmas that accompany this dependency. 

The challenge posed by European imports of natural gas is particularly salient to discussion. Externally, EU member states are dependent on natural gas imports from a small, but diverse coterie of nations – some stable and friendly, others notably less so – and hence is vulnerable to supply interruptions.  Russia has a dominant position as a supplier of gas to Europe that is of growing concern for EU policymakers. Internally, Europeans have done little to rectify that dilemma.  Member countries oscillate between acting independently based on specific national energy needs and cooperating as a political union on energy-related matters.  As a result of the lack of coordination and cooperation, EU member states are dramatically more vulnerable to supply disruptions than they might be otherwise.  This, in turn, exposes Europe to political and economic manipulation, of the sort that is naturally distressing to Europe’s allies and partners across the globe. 

This study assumes that gas will be the dominant energy source in the EU in the coming decades.  This transition could be driven by at least two complimentary forces.  The first is the EU’s desire to reduce its carbon emissions and shift towards a greener economy.  The scientific consensus indicates that greenhouse gas emissions from conventional and unconventional natural gas equal approximately one half of the greenhouse gas emissions produced when using coal to produce an equal amount of energy, and the Europeans have already acknowledged that natural gas is essential to meeting their ambitious carbon-reduction targets. The second is the potential reduction in nuclear power in the EU following the disaster at Fukushima, which would also dramatically increase demand for natural gas.  It is telling that in every EU energy scenario analysis examined during the course of this study, gas consumption was projected to considerably increase. 

The goal of this study, therefore, is to analyze the energy security challenges that the EU faces in view of its growing dependence on imported natural gas.  The first section of this report analyzes the internal European gas market and domestic production.  The second section delves into security challenges originating from the EU’s current gas supply sources, focusing on Russia. The third section outlines potential sources of new supply, with special attention paid to Norway, the Arctic, the Middle East, North Africa, the Caspian, and the US.  Finally, the fourth section summarizes the findings of the study and offers conclusions.