Scenarios for the 10-Year Outlook for Maritime Activities in the Middle East Gulf: Implications for Naval Operations of U.S. Forces

The purpose of this Capstone project was to design a method to address the United States’ energy security interests in the Persian Gulf over the next fifteen years. The rate at which variables change with respect to security, energy, and geopolitics necessitates a system to capture these variables and enable informed decision-making. The project defined the Persian Gulf as the region of geographic significance given its relationship to energy extraction in the Middle East, noting the Strait of Hormuz as the world’s most critical point in energy security. Graduate students from the School for International and Public Affairs at Columba University collaborated to design a template, build scenarios, and convey the most important variables related to the U.S. military and energy security interests in the Persian Gulf. A key theme of the project was to analyze not only the United States’ military ability, but also the country’s political willingness to engage and remain in the Persian Gulf.