Support to U.S. NATO Mission

This Capstone final report analyzes the opportunities and obstacles for intelligence sharing with select NATO members: France, Germany, Italy, and Turkey. In addition to describing the history, organizational structure, and capabilities of these members’ civilian and military intelligence organizations, the report provides a framework for assessing a country’s propensity to share intelligence based on the following six factors: strategic priorities, security environment, established partnerships, intelligence capabilities, and culture. This framework is meant to serve as an enduring analytical tool for intelligence scholars and practitioners.

Based on the research, the Capstone team conclude the following about the prospects for intelligence sharing with France, Germany, Italy, and Turkey:

• Due to the insular nature of France’s secret services and the lack of legislative oversight, France’s propensity to share intelligence will depend on the characteristics of its potential partners. France will be likely to share if the partner is involved in similar areas of strategic interest, if it is affected by an event that causes a sense of crisis in France, if there are mutual “boots on the ground,” or if the partner is a member of Five Eyes.

• Historically, Germany has been a reliable NATO partner. It is likely to continue to share intelligence with Western allies because it has congruent strategic priorities and established institutional partnerships. The major obstacle for sharing in this case is Germany's traumatic historical experience with both militarism and intelligence, and the resulting reluctance to get involved in military missions. Germany's strong signals intelligence and human intelligence capabilities in the Middle East make it an attractive sharing partner.

• Of the countries studied in this report, Italy may be the most willing to share intelligence. Italy is undergoing deep defense cuts and is therefore facing the need to maintain its current intelligence capabilities in the face of capacity constraints. Intelligence sharing offers a solution to this problem, and the fact that Italy must cooperate with other countries to address its most pressing strategic threats creates strong incentives for intelligence sharing partnerships. Nonetheless, there are real obstacles to sharing, including the country’s weak cyber systems and lingering questions about the judicial oversight of Italian intelligence services.

• Turkey is an attractive partner for intelligence sharing due to its unique geopolitical position, which enables Turkey to share its intelligence on a transactional basis as long as such cooperation serves its core strategic interests. Two major drivers for Turkish intelligence sharing are Turkey’s desire to leverage its soft power to increase its regional influence and Turkish fears of Kurdish separatism. However, compared to other countries in our brief, Turkey is probably least likely to share intelligence due to its relatively close relationship with and energy dependency on Russia and Iran and occasionally strained relationship with the US and Israel.