Transfer and Convertibility Risk in the Age of Economic Statecraft

Transfer and convertibility (T&C) risk, which arises when a country restricts the conversion or transfer of funds abroad, has evolved significantly in today’s era of economic statecraft and financial sanctions. Once linked mainly to macroeconomic instability, T&C risk is now also shaped by deliberate geopolitical actions that constrain access to foreign exchange, global markets, and payment systems. Partnering with Goldman Sachs’ Sovereign, Economic and Geopolitical Risk Group (SERG), this Capstone project will design a comprehensive scorecard to assess and monitor T&C risk by separating fundamentally driven capital controls from geopolitically driven sanctions. The final deliverables will include an Excel-based scorecard, a detailed methodological report, and a presentation outlining practical applications for Goldman Sachs’ ongoing country risk monitoring and strategic planning. The project aims to provide a structured, data-driven approach for identifying and anticipating T&C risk in a rapidly changing global landscape.